Transformative shifts across different regions are paving the way for ongoing success in the global blueberry market. According to a recent RaboResearch study, key trends driving the industry’s future include advancements in genetics and a stronger emphasis on labor productivity and efficiency among growers.
After a brief decline in 2023/24, blueberry exports are expected to rebound.
The 2023/24 season was notable for marking the first drop in exports in 15 years, primarily due to adverse weather conditions that affected production in major exporting countries. Overall, global exports decreased by 10 percent, and the recovery in production and exports is anticipated to take longer than expected.
“For the 2024/25 season, we forecast record exports, but only a 3 percent increase compared to the 2022/23 season,” states David Magaña, senior analyst for fresh produce at RaboResearch. “In subsequent seasons, we predict a return to historical growth rates, potentially exceeding one million metric tons by the 2027/28 season.”
While China will remain the leading producer, it will continue to rely on South American imports during the counter-season, prioritizing quality. The 2023/24 season saw South American blueberry exports experience their first decline in 11 years, marking only the second decrease since the 2001/02 season. Nevertheless, Peru will maintain its dominant position in the global blueberry trade, though the factors fueling growth are evolving. Magaña notes, “Renewing varieties will drive further growth in fresh blueberry exports. New plantings will replace older varieties and orchards, and with a larger share of proprietary varieties, we expect growth to be driven by higher yields rather than an increase in planted area.” A diverse array of new cultivars will help growers across different regions extend their production seasons. In Peru, the peak season is projected to lengthen from a few weeks in previous years to several months in the midterm. This more gradual production curve will facilitate better marketing strategies, minimizing market saturation and price declines.
Labor remains a significant challenge for growers globally. In many regions, the labor force is dwindling, intensifying competition from other sectors. For labor-intensive crops like blueberries, recruiting enough workers and managing their housing and transportation during harvest is a considerable challenge. Magaña explains, “As labor becomes scarcer, we expect producers to intensify their focus on this issue, adopting strategies such as switching to varieties with larger berries or improved detachability, embracing machine harvesting, automating pre- and post-harvest processes, reducing the frequency of harvesting runs, and extending the season.”
“Machine harvesting is currently navigating a steep learning curve and needs to align with the structure of the orchards and the varieties grown. Addressing these factors will be key to its success, but the timeline for this remains uncertain.”
